Forecast for China's Fluorspar Market in May 2025: Supply Recovery Meets Weak Demand, Prices Likely to Stay Under Pressure

As May unfolds, China’s fluorspar market is expected to remain under pressure, with little room for price rebound due to continued supply-demand imbalance.

Supply Side: Imports and Domestic Restart Bring More Spot Availability

Fluorspar production in Mongolia is steadily ramping up, contributing to a notable increase in imports. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures in northern China are enabling more domestic producers to resume operations, adding to market supply. However, the overall mining activity within China remains constrained. Heightened environmental and safety regulations have led to shutdowns and inspections at several mines, making it difficult for new capacity to come online. Structural raw material shortages persist despite local restarts.

Demand Side: Weak Hydrofluoric Acid Prices Curb Purchasing Activity

Hydrofluoric acid (HF) prices continue to decline, with mainstream offers ranging from RMB 11,500 to 12,000/ton. Some downstream HF plants remain offline, and those still operating are procuring fluorspar only as needed. With operating rates hovering around 50%, and cost pressures mounting, HF producers are reluctant to purchase high-priced fluorspar. While the refrigerant market shows some stability, high prices are dampening buying enthusiasm among end-users, leading to cautious, demand-driven procurement patterns.

Medium-to-Long Term: Emerging Applications May Offer Support

Beyond traditional refrigerant uses, fluorspar’s role in strategic sectors continues to grow. Demand is expanding in applications such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, photovoltaic glass, and graphite anodes—key components in new energy technologies and advanced materials. These developments may provide structural support for fluorspar prices over the longer term.

Outlook: Downward Pressure Likely in the Short Term; Watch for Demand Recovery and Policy Signals

In the short term, weak downstream demand, coupled with rising inventory levels, may keep fluorspar prices on a soft trajectory. Going forward, market participants should closely monitor the pace of order recovery in downstream sectors, the rollout of new demand from emerging industries, and the real impact of supply-side restrictions on raw material availability.